The title says it all… there’s really no other way to sum up what’s happening in the Oklahoma City real estate market lately.

For the past year, although certain aspects of the market have been unpredictable, we’ve seen fairly-steady growth, and respectable levels of home sales in the OKC metro, especially in comparison with the rest of the country. With that in mind, most of us headed into Summer anticipating that a time which is traditionally a busy few months would be just that, busy.

Yes, we knew that the largest stimulus in the the history of our country was coming to an end, but absorption rates were healthy and interest rates were at unprecedented lows (and still are), and the next few months are that time of year when the kids are out of school and many people are ready to make their move.

We were wrong.

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Last week’s video blog was in my office in Edmond, OK about keeping it in perspective when making an offer on a home. You can see the statistics I referenced here, and feel free to voice your opinion on this topic in the comments below. Have a great day!!

So, it’s not just us local yokels singing the praises of the Oklahoma City metro real estate market. Even the Federal Housing Finance Agency has joined in on the party.

With both Tulsa and Oklahoma city ranked highly, I’ll continue to say there’s plenty to be confident about here, in Oklahoma.

In my latest video blog from the Fenwick addition park in Edmond, OK, I hit on the truth of what’s going on on the Central Oklahoma and national real estate scenes. You can see the actual statistics that I reference in the video and leave a comment here to voice your opinion on this topic.

I’ve got some hardcore analysis coming in a few days, but if you haven’t seen the latest real estate sales statistics for the OKC Metro, you should take a look.

At first glance, here are the things that jump out at me most:

• The obvious one; home sales are up 22% over this time last year
• Average sales price is down almost 8.5% over this time last year
• We’re down to almost a 5-month inventory (guess when that last happened)

How’d you like to see an analysis of sales broken down by price range? Stay tuned!

Whether the predictions are from local folks with a great understanding of the central Oklahoma market, or national folks with an in-depth understanding of things happening across the US, the fact is, today’s roller-coaster that is the real estate business has most of us playing a bit of a guessing game.

• How will the expiration of the Tax Credit affect the economic recovery?
• Has housing hit bottom and/or has recovery truly begun?
• Is now the right time for me to buy/sell?

All valid questions indeed, and chances are good that you’ll get a different answer from each person you ask. Additionally, the answer to the third question is unique to only you. With that in mind, let’s look at what we do know, according to the latest OKC metro area real estate statistics:

• The number of homes closed last month (Sept 09) was up from both a monthly and annual comparison.
• The average home price is down in comparison to last year, but the median sales price is up over last year.
• The average listing is selling faster this year than last, and the inventory levels are much healthier.

What exactly does it all mean? That’s where the interpretation comes into play, but overall things still look pretty stable and positive here locally.

I believe we’re seeing a more balanced market, but many sellers haven’t realized that yet, which means there are plenty of ‘deals’ out there right now. Will that help balance out the downside of the expiration of the Tax Credit, if it is allowed to expire?

It’s a simple factor in market economics… supply and demand dictate pricing.

• As demand increases, so will prices if supply doesn’t keep up.
• As demand decreases, so will prices if supply doesn’t follow suit.
• As supply increases, prices will drop if demand doesn’t keep up.
• As supply decreases, prices will skyrocket if demand doesn’t drop.

This concept, of course, applies to real estate and is something you, as a home buyer and/or seller, should be keenly aware of at all times. Over the past 2 years, home inventory levels (supply) have been at levels considered ‘unbalanced.’ They’ve been higher than ideal and have created what many call a ‘buyer’s market.’

However, over the past few months, these inventory levels have been steadily decreasing, due in part to the Home Buyer Tax Credit., as evidenced in this chart:

To sum it up, here’s the part you should be keenly aware of right now:

An inventory of 5.7 months means sellers are regaining some leverage for negotiating, although buyers still have some advantage.

I stumbled across an interesting article from CNNMoney.com this morning, which outlines what some believe to be the 3 signs the economy is rebounding.

I can’t speak to the first and third points in the article, but I thought this would be a good time to brag (again) about what’s happening locally and tie it into their second bullet point.  In regards to housing supply, the article states:

Slowly improving. At the end of March there was less than a 10-month supply, down from 11 months in the fall.

However, the Oklahoma City Metro market shows a very different picture, as evidenced by this chart:

As you can see, not only is our housing inventory decreasing, it’s actually almost back to where it was before our local market began really feeling the effects of the downward national real estate trends.

The April real estate statistics were just published for the OKC, Edmond, and surrounding areas and, while they weren’t as exciting as I’d expected, there are still a lot of positives in these numbers.

With the flurry of activity we’ve seen over the past 4-6 weeks though, I’m still betting that May closings will give us some pretty staggering numbers… stay tuned!

Need more evidence of the strength of the housing market in Oklahoma?

I regularly post our local Central Oklahoma real estate statistics here to keep you informed, and they’re quite contrary to what you’ll hear if you watch the national news, but the Federal Housing Finance Agency just published the U.S. Monthly House Price Index, which not only backs up the fact that Oklahoma is standing strong in the face of a real estate decline, but further shows that our region (which includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana) is actually out-pacing EVERY other region in the U.S.  In addition, it’s the ONLY region that actually posted positive appreciation over the last year.

So, rejoice Okies! We’re in far better shape than you might have thought!